It's Only One Forecast, But Here's A Little History
We all know that we have to go back to 2008 to have a Democratic Congressman. In that year, Tom Perriello beats Virgil Goode by 727 votes. Then Perriello loses to Robert Hurt by almost 9,000 votes in 2010. Hurt beats John Douglas by about 44,000 in 2012 and then trounces Lawrence Gaughan by over 50,000 votes in 2014. In 2016 and Tom Garrett buries Jane Dittmar by almost 60,000 votes.
This is why Nate Silver's forecast that the 2018 race in the 5th is a toss up is such a big deal.